The Buffalo Bills' offense took the field at Gillette Stadium on Sunday expecting a big day.
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While the Bills were coming off scoring just seven points in the first three quarters of the last two games combined, the New England Patriots defense came into Week 7 allowing 25.3 points per game (ranked 24th coming into Week 7). Quarterback Josh Allen had thrived against the Patriots in recent years, with 18 touchdowns, two interceptions and a total QBR of 81.6 in the past seven meetings.
Sunday's loss leaves the Bills with more questions than answers ahead of a short week with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming to town Thursday (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
What's the answer to fixing the offensive woes of a team with Super Bowl aspirations? These four issues need to be addressed.
Striking early: The Bills have been outscored 24-0 in the first quarter of the last three games and lost the points differential in the first half of those games by 20 points, a sharp change from the league best +54 in first halves from the first four games of the year.
"I wish I could tell you. I really do," coach Sean McDermott said on the early offensive issues. "... We talk about being more detailed, getting into a rhythm early, playing complementary football and all three phases working together. We haven't been able to get into a good rhythm, obviously, in the first quarter."
For McDermott, getting into a rhythm means staying "on schedule" and being productive on first down to help avoid third-and-long situations. Against the Patriots, the Bills were mostly productive on first down, averaging 6.3 yards per play. It wasn't a big issue in Weeks 5-6 either, with the Bills averaging 8.1 yards per play on first down in those games.
Instead, second down was the problem. Buffalo averaged just 3 yards per play on second down against the Patriots, the lowest average on the down by any team in Week 7. In the prior two games, the Bills were averaging 4.5 yards per play on second down.
Being productive on third-and-long is an issue. In third-and-7 or longer situations over the last three games, the Bills have gained 45 yards on 18 plays with Allen completing 31.3% of passes -- the worst team completion percentage in the league in those situations.
"That's when it gets to be hard to call a game against two-dimensional offense," McDermott said. "When you're on schedule, winning first downs or skipping third downs or even putting us into a third down-and-short to medium at most. Too many off-schedule situations."
Playing complementary: The Bills got away from running the ball early in the game after falling behind, but also didn't try to reignite it in the second half. Eight of running back James Cook's 13 carries and two of Latavius Murray's four carries were in the first half.
"We aren't playing consistent enough or starting fast enough," Murray said. "We turned it around toward the end, but you can't just turn it on, it's a little too late."
Big plays: Allen has put together mixed performances when throwing deep, and the negative side has hurt the offense. He now has seven interceptions on passes of 15-plus air yards this season. The only time in his career he has thrown more was in his rookie year (9).
No one has attempted more throws of 15 or more air yards than Allen this season (59), but those throws didn't work out against New England as he finished with the worst completion percentage of the last two season on such throws (2-of-10) and dropped his season percentage to 46%. He has, however, thrown six touchdowns on passes of 15 or more air yards.
Adjusting before halftime: The slow starts also fall on playcaller/offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey as well as Allen for not better adjusting the offense to what the defense is doing.
Against the Patriots, Allen was blitzed (42%) and pressured (40%) at season-high rates. Eventually, in the second half, the offense adapted as he completed 7-of-11 of those throws with two touchdowns when blitzed in the second half.
Defenses have found ways to neutralize the offense. The Bills can't wait until halftime to find better solutions.
"I wish I knew the exact answer because we'd have it fixed by now," Allen said when asked about the slow starts. "We're going to watch this film and find a way to get there, whatever it is. Our season is not over. It's a long season. Feels pretty bleak right now, but we're going to figure it out."
But on Buffalo's first offensive play, Allen threw a pass intended for tight end Dawson Knox that was picked off with relative ease by safety Jabrill Peppers.
The play was a sign of the offensive struggles to come, with the Bills scoring only three points in the first half and 10 in the first three quarters in what became a 29-25 loss. The offense showed life in the fourth quarter with 15 points scored in just under four minutes, but it was too late to change the outcome.
"We're going to get [opponents'] best shots, whatever it is," defensive tackle Jordan Phillips said. "We're a team everybody wants to beat and we got to stop playing down to certain different people. We got to do our thing and play Buffalo Bills football. We haven't done that the last couple weeks, even though we won last week."